PREDIKSI PERMINTAAN DAN PERSEDIAAN DARAH : PENDEKATAN DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

  • Patrisius Batarius(1)
    Universitas Katolik Widya Mandira
  • Alfry Aristo Jansen Sinlae(2*)
    Universitas Katolik Widya Mandira
    • (*) Corresponding Author
DOI: https://doi.org/10.35508/jicon.v12i1.12798
Kata Kunci: DES, MAPE, UTD-PMI Kupang, permintaan darah, persediaan darah

Abstrak

Setiap hari terjadi transfusi darah di rumah sakit. Sistem manajemen dan pendistribusian darah telah terintegrasi dalam setiap UTD-PMI. Berbagai sistem dibentuk untuk menjaga keseimbangan antara permintaan dan persediaan kantong darah. UTD-PMI Kota Kupang melayani permintaan darah di 12 Rumah Sakit dan 1 klinik yang berada di Kota dan Kabupaten Kupang. Permintaan darah lebih banyak dibandingkan dengan persediaan darah di UTD-PMI tersebut menjadi masalah tersendiri. Prediksi akan permintaan dan persediaan darah menjadi penting agar tidak terjadi selisih permintaan darah dan persediaan darah di kantor UTD-PMI yang sangat besar. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) untuk memprediksi permintaan dan persediaan darah. Data 4 tahun terakhir digunakan untuk memprediksi jumlah permintaan dan persediaan darah. Prediksi dengan metode DES dibagi dalam 2 kategori. Kategori pertama menggunakan data 3 tahun terakhir untuk memprediksi data di tahun ke-4 selama 6 bulan ke depan. Data latih yang digunakan dibagi dalam 2 jenis yakni 3 tahun terakhir dan 2 tahun terakhir. Hasil prediksi dibandingkan dengan data real di tahun 2023. Kategori ke-2, menggunakan data 4 tahun terakhir untuk memprediksi data di tahun 2023. Data latih yang digunakan dibagi dalam 4 jenis, yakni masing-masing mulai dari 4, 3, 2 dan 1 tahun terakhir. Untuk mengetahui akurasi perhitungan menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil dari penentuan data latih dengan range yang berbeda menghasilkan prediksi permintaan darah dan persediaan darah yang hasilnya juga berbeda dan masih dalam kategori Good Forecast.

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2024-02-11
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P. Batarius dan A. A. J. Sinlae, “PREDIKSI PERMINTAAN DAN PERSEDIAAN DARAH : PENDEKATAN DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING”, jicon, vol. 12, no. 1, hlm. 1-9, Feb 2024.
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