The effect of inflation and foreign exchange reserves on the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar
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Alisya Hisanum(1*)
Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Singaperbangsa Karawang
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Suhono Suhono(2)
Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Singaperbangsa Karawang
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Salim Siregar(3)
Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Singaperbangsa Karawang
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Liya Megawati(4)
Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Singaperbangsa Karawang
(*) Corresponding Author
Keywords:
Inflation, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Exchange Rate, Rupiah, US Dollar
Abstract
This study aims to examine the influence of inflation and foreign exchange reserves on the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar during the 2020–2024 period. A quantitative method with monthly time-series data was used, analyzed through multiple linear regression to assess partial and simultaneous effects. The results show that inflation remained relatively stable, while foreign exchange reserves increased, yet the Rupiah continued to fluctuate due to external pressures. The findings indicate that neither inflation nor foreign exchange reserves significantly affects the exchange rate, suggesting that global financial conditions and capital flows play a more dominant role. This study concludes that domestic macroeconomic indicators alone cannot fully explain Rupiah movements. The research is limited by the exclusion of other relevant variables, and future studies are encouraged to include interest rates, trade performance, and external shocks to provide a more comprehensive understanding of exchange rate dynamics.
Keywords: Inflation; Foreign Exchange Reserves; Exchange Rate; Rupiah; US Dollar
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References
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Saadaoui, J. (2024). Financial development, international reserves, and real exchange rate dynamics: Insights from the Europe and Central Asia region. Finance Research Letters, 70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106359
Silitonga, R. B., Ishak, Z., & Mukhlis. (2017). Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, Dan Inflasi Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan (JEP), 15(1), 52-59. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v15i1.8821
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Sugiyono. (2023). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Bandung: CV Alfabeta.
Sukirno, S. (2010). Makroekonomi: Teori Pengantar (Ketiga ed.). Jakarta: Rajawali Pers.
Symansky, S. A., Clark, P. B., Bartolini, L., & Bayoumi, T. (1994). II International Competitiveness Indicators. International Monetary Fund (IMF). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781557754516.084.ch002
Zalogo, E. F. (2017). Analisis Inflasi Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis (JEB), 1(1), 22-35.
Arintoko. (2011). Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Import Prices and Inflation under Structural Breaks. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets (JEP), 3(1), 55-75. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.v3i1.2320
Azelia, A. A., & Desmintari. (2025). Determinan Cadangan Devisa Indonesia. Journal of Development Economic and Digitalization (JDED), 4(1), 98-121. https://doi.org/10.59664/jded.v4i1.10416
Bank Indonesia. (2017). Peraturan Bank Indonesia Nomor 19/11/PBI/2017 tentang Penyelesaian Transaksi Perdagangan Bilateral Menggunakan Mata Uang Lokal (Local Currency Settlement) Melalui Bank. Retrieved from https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/peraturan/Pages/pbi_191117.aspx
Bank Indonesia. (2025). Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia 2024. Retrieved from https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/Pages/LPI_2024.aspx
Berliana, E., & Aji, T. S. (2025). Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi, JUB, BI Rate, dan Ekspor Terhadap Nilai Tukar (Kurs) di Indonesia. Independent: Journal of Economics, 5(2), 93-102. https://doi.org/10.26740/independent.v5i2.72308
Boediono. (2014). Ekonomi Makro (Keempat ed.). Yogyakarta: BPFE-Yogyakarta.
Chen, L., Liu, E. X., & Liu, Z. (2024). FX resilience around the world: Fighting volatile cross-border capital flows. International Review of Financial Analysis, 96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103753
Fakhruddin, & Rahmawati, S. (2021). Pengaruh Inflasi dan Pergerakan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik Indonesia, 8(1), 75-92.
https://doi.org/10.24815/ekapi.v8i1.23008
Hidayah, N. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Utang Luar Negeri, Kurs, Dan Inflasi Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia. Ekopem: Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 4(4), 37-49.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept. (2024). Indonesia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Indonesia. International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2024(270). https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400284588.002.A001
Jonsson, G. (1999). Inflation, Money Demand, and Purchasing Power Parity in South Africa. IMF Working Papers, 1999(122), 28.
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451854473.001
Kemoe, L., Mbohou, M., Mighri, H., & Quayyum, S. (2024). Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Madura, J. (2021). International Financial Management. Boston: Cengage Learning.
Maharani, A., Nugroho, H. S., Sriwiyanto, & Nahar, F. H. (2022). Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Price Stability in Indonesia 2010-2019. Journal of Applied Economics in Developing Countries (JAEDC), 7(1), 1-9.
https://doi.org/10.20961/jaedc.v7i1.79420
Mankiw, N. G. (2020). Principles of Economics. Boston: Cengage Learning.
Mishkin, F. S. (2019). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets. New York: Pearson Education.
Musliha, C. (2022). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar dan Tingkat Suku Bunga terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia Periode 2000 - 2022. EKUILNOMI: Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 5(2), 322-331. https://doi.org/10.36985/2ck8n324
Natasa, B. N., Sujianto, A. E., Laila, I. R., Rahmawati, H. R., & Rohmah, S. M. (2023). Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Stabilitas Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Tahun 2017-2022. Neraca: Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen dan Akuntansi, 1(4), 243-249. https://doi.org/10.572349/neraca.v1i4.320
Nopirin. (2012). Ekonomi Moneter Buku II. Yogyakarta: BPFE-Yogyakarta.
Nugrahani, E. I., & Atmanti, H. D. (2025). The Effect Of Monetary Factors On The Exchange Rate: A Study With Vecm Approach. SIBATIK Journal: Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Sosial, Ekonomi, Budaya, Teknologi, dan Pendidikan, 4(7), 1303-1322. https://doi.org/10.54443/sibatik.v4i7.2901
Palagan, G. P., Fisher, B., & Darto. (2018). Analisis Data Statistik Menggunakan SPSS. UM Jakarta Press.
Puspitasari, N. (2024). Volatilitas Nilai Tukar: Implikasi bagi Stabilitas Ekonomi dan Investasi. Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis dan Pendidikan, 4(11).
https://doi.org/10.17977/um066v4i112024p1
Ramadani, A., Elviana, Y. E., Mudlofar, M. K., & Sarpini. (2024). Konsep Terms Of Trade dan Dampaknya Terhadap Ekonomi Suatu Negara. Jurnal Akademik Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, 1(4), 273-281. https://doi.org/10.61722/jaem.v1i4.3355
Rangkuty, D. M., Sajar, S., Yazid, A., & Satria, W. (2024). Teori Inflasi dan Pendapatan. Medan: CV Tahta Media Group.
Saadaoui, J. (2024). Financial development, international reserves, and real exchange rate dynamics: Insights from the Europe and Central Asia region. Finance Research Letters, 70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106359
Silitonga, R. B., Ishak, Z., & Mukhlis. (2017). Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, Dan Inflasi Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan (JEP), 15(1), 52-59. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v15i1.8821
Sitorus, N. H. (2020). Implikasi Guncangan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Cadangan Devisa, Suku Bunga dan Inflasi. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan (JEP), 9(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v9i1.81
Sugiyono. (2023). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Bandung: CV Alfabeta.
Sukirno, S. (2010). Makroekonomi: Teori Pengantar (Ketiga ed.). Jakarta: Rajawali Pers.
Symansky, S. A., Clark, P. B., Bartolini, L., & Bayoumi, T. (1994). II International Competitiveness Indicators. International Monetary Fund (IMF). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781557754516.084.ch002
Zalogo, E. F. (2017). Analisis Inflasi Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis (JEB), 1(1), 22-35.
Published
2026-11-08
How to Cite
Hisanum, A., Suhono, S., Siregar, S., & Megawati, L. (2026). The effect of inflation and foreign exchange reserves on the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar. Journal of Management : Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), 19(3), 2415-2429. https://doi.org/10.35508/jom.v19i3.26254
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Articles
