APPLICATION OF ALTMAN Z-SCORE METHOD IN PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS AT PT PINDAD FOR PERIOD 2019–2023
-
Sofia Putri Amanda(1*)
Department of Public Sector Business Administration, Polythecnic STIA LAN Bandung
-
Anggi Syahadat Harahap(2)
Department of Public Sector Business Administration, Polythecnic STIA LAN Bandung
-
Nur Imam Taufik(3)
Department of Public Sector Business Administration, Polythecnic STIA LAN Bandung
-
Iwan Kurniawan(4)
Department of Public Sector Business Administration, Polythecnic STIA LAN Bandung
(*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
PT Pindad, as a strategic state-owned enterprise, plays a crucial role in supporting Indonesia’s national defense industry. This study aims to analyze the company’s financial distress condition using the Altman Z-Score method and to forecast its 2024 financial position through time-series linear regression analysis conducted in Microsoft Excel. The analysis is based on financial statement data covering the period from 2019 to 2023.The findings reveal that PT Pindad consistently remained in the distress zone throughout the observation period, as indicated by its Z-Score results. Forecasting analysis further suggests a continued decline in financial performance in 2024 if no corrective measures are implemented. The Altman Z-Score model demonstrated an estimated predictive accuracy of 80% when compared with actual financial indicators, indicating that the model is relatively reliable in identifying potential financial distress conditions.However, this study is limited to a single company case study, which restricts the generalizability of the findings. Future research is recommended to conduct comparative analyses across multiple firms within the defense industry to provide broader insights. To improve long-term financial sustainability, recommended recovery strategies include debt restructuring, stricter capital expenditure control, operational cost efficiency, and optimization of marketing strategies and asset utilization.
Keywords: Financial Distress; Altman Z-Score; Financial Performance
Downloads
References
https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843
Altman, E. I. (2013). Predicting financial distress of companies: revisiting the Z-Score and ZETA® models. In Handbook of research methods and applications in empirical finance: Vol. I (pp. 428–456). Edward Elgar Publishing.
Altman, E. I., & Hotchkiss. (1998). Corporate financial distress and bankruptcy (Vol. 8). John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.07.052
Annual Report PT Pindad. (2025). PT Pindad.
Aviantara, R. (2023). Scoring the financial distress and the financial statement fraud of Garuda Indonesia with « DDCC » as the financial solutions. 18(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1108/JM2-01-2020-0017
BPK. (2024). BPK Ungkap Beberapa Permasalahan Pada LHP DTT PT Pindad. Tersedia di: (https://www.bpk.go.id/news/bpk-ungkap-beberapa-permasalahan-pada-lhp-dtt-pt-pindad). Diakses pada tanggal 05 Maret 2025.
Chien, F. dkk. (2021). Nexus between financial innovation and bankruptcy: Evidence from information, communication and technology (ict) sector. Singapore Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590821500181
Dolinšek, T., & Kovač, T. (2024). Application of the Altman Model for the Prediction of Financial Distress in the Case of Slovenian Companies. Organizacija, 57(2), 115–126. https://doi.org/10.2478/orga-2024-0008
Fitri, A. (2020). Pelibatan Pihak Swasta dalam Industri Pertahanan Nasional pada Undang-Undang Cipta Kerja. Kajian Singkat Terhadap Isu Aktual Dan Strategis, 12(20), 25–30.
Hanke, J.E. and Wichern, D. (2014) Business Forecasting. Edinburgh Gate, Harlow: Pearson Education Limited.
Lau, E. A. (2021). Financial Distress dan Faktor-Faktor Prediksinya. Exchall: Economic Challenge, 3(2), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.47685/exchall.v3i2.202
Liang, D. dkk. (2020). Combining corporate governance indicators with stacking ensembles for financial distress prediction. Journal of Business Research, 120, 137–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.07.052
Mansor, M. M., dkk. (2023). Visualising the Optimistic, Realistic, and Pessimistic Financial Distress Outlooks for Airport Operations in Malaysia. Journal of Cases on Information Technology (JCIT), 25(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.4018/JCIT.324103
Oktaviani, N., & Purwanto, P. (2021). Analisis Financial Distress Dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Harga Saham Di Perusahaan Manufaktur Sektor Bahan Dasar Dan Kimia. Jurnal SIKAP (Sistem Informasi, Keuangan, Auditing Dan Perpajakan), 5, 46. https://doi.org/10.32897/jsikap.v5i1.268
Paramita, R. W. D., Rizal, N., & Sulistyan, R. B. (2021). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif (3rd ed.). Widya Gama Press.
Rezki, F. dkk. (2022). Kemampuan Pt Pindad Sebagai Industri Pertahanan Nasional Dalam Pemenuhan Minimum Essential Forces (Mef). NUSANTARA: Jurnal Ilmu Pengetahuan Sosia, 9(8), 3147–3154.
https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.31604/jips.v9i8.2022.3147-3154
Rini, M. W., & Ananda, N. (2022). Perbandingan Metode Peramalan Menggunakan Model Time Series. Tekinfo: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri dan Informasi, 10(2), 88-101.
Sipahutar, C. S. R. (2023). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Keamanan Dalam Industri Pertahanan: Dampak Terhadap Keberlanjutan Dan Daya Saing. Media Bina Ilmiah, 18(1978), 795–802. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.33758/mbi.v18i4.484
Srimindarti, C. dkk. (2020). Financial Distress A Case Study of Indonesia. https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210311.090
Suprihatin, N., Naifaroh, L., & Fazarwati, D. (2022). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Financial Distress. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Ekonomi Akuntansi, 7, 95–107. https://doi.org/10.24815/jimeka.v7i1.20087
Wahyuningsih, E. D., Arumsari, P. D., & Septiana, E. D. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh ROE, Sales Growth, dan TATO Terhadap Financial Distress (Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Sektor Industri Barang Konsumsi Yang Terdaftar di BEI). 10(1). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.30640/ekonomika45.v10i1.663
